What would we think if an election would not take place on the scheduled 2016? Of course, we will be asking why. Perhaps, for ordinary citizen like us, the holding or not holding the local and national elections does not matter at all. However, for those whose chances of winning are great, any idea about the postponement of an election is unacceptable. On the contrary, those whose administration is replete with suspicion of corruption and immorality will definitely be glad no end. The same thought of relief would probably be in the minds of politicians whose reelection to office hangs in the balance.

The next local and national election in the country is on May 2016. The election includes the president, senators, congress, governors, and town mayors.

However, this early, this column wishes to forewarn the readers that a “no election” would likely take place as dictated by events. Certainly, one of the reasons for the suspension of the scheduled national and local elections would be to perpetuate in power at all cost. The idea of perpetuation is attainable under justifying conditions. In other words, those who are in control of the reign of power could make justification whether an election is necessary. Aside from this, there are also circumstantial events that might justify the withholding of the election.

We hate to discuss about scenarios that could justify the suspension of the election in 2016. However, the events unfolding before our eyes are giving us a clear indication that “Noel” (no election) is likely to take place.

What are these scenarios? Everyone who reads and listens to everyday news stories have already an insight of the things to happen in the near future.

First, a war cloud is looming in the South China Sea. With China engaging in a veiled aggression and saber rattling among claimant-countries of the contested islands, a spark might lead to an Asian armed conflict.

For instance, China’s controversial nine-dash line is not only an encroachment of the Philippine’s territory but also an affront to the Filipinos. The once struggling country in Asia that China has now became a menacing Tiger whose claws are scratching the surface of the sovereign nations in Southeast Asia. China has lost respect to its neighbors as it flaunts its military hardware in a body of water they claimed to be theirs on two reasons – one, for historical reasons which is vague, and two, because of the name, South China Sea ( a historical fault of description committed by the seafarers of the past).

Now, China is building a small military base (a spitting distance) to the Philippines nearest island of Palawan. China is not only showing a provocative character, but is sending a strong message that it has now the capability to launch punitive military action anywhere in the South China Sea (including the Philippines.) China refuses to acknowledge the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) of which, China is a member and a signatory.

If an armed conflict between the Philippines – short lived as presumed – it is an enough ground to postpone the national and local elections next year. It is not a question whether China will make the first move because the Philippines could also initiate a limited military action. We are talking here of only one scenario. There are other conditions, which we could tackle next time. -0-


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